Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.019363 0.021952 0.024780 0.028103 0.031905 0.036123 0.041166
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.014935 0.018356 0.022424 0.027635 0.034154 0.042071 0.052457
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.012585 0.016316 0.021010 0.027381 0.035850 0.046785 0.062080
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.010938 0.014807 0.019903 0.027157 0.037290 0.051058 0.071373
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.009987 0.014039 0.019595 0.027838 0.039873 0.056983 0.083466
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.008938 0.012982 0.018724 0.027561 0.040973 0.060818 0.092872
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.008397 0.012575 0.018706 0.028471 0.043843 0.067470 0.107215
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.007478 0.011501 0.017573 0.027539 0.043740 0.069488 0.114385
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.006806 0.010732 0.016818 0.027092 0.044312 0.072562 0.123542
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.006101 0.009839 0.015778 0.026067 0.043796 0.073744 0.129527
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.005878 0.009705 0.015939 0.027032 0.046710 0.080980 0.146973
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.005660 0.009554 0.016051 0.027910 0.049540 0.088326 0.165446
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.005412 0.009338 0.016047 0.028610 0.052170 0.095681 0.185042
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.005011 0.008823 0.015480 0.028242 0.052797 0.099401 0.198036
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.004668 0.008379 0.014996 0.027974 0.053568 0.103443 0.212132
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004364 0.007980 0.014559 0.027744 0.054378 0.107622 0.226994
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.004210 0.007847 0.014600 0.028441 0.057098 0.115920 0.251743
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003947 0.007482 0.014171 0.028158 0.057770 0.120031 0.267705
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003848 0.007427 0.014333 0.029089 0.061078 0.130083 0.298535
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.003547 0.006949 0.013621 0.028135 0.060230 0.130963 0.307858
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.003324 0.006611 0.013165 0.027678 0.060423 0.134169 0.323184
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.003060 0.006170 0.012463 0.026629 0.059179 0.133957 0.329979
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.003011 0.006170 0.012678 0.027617 0.062700 0.145242 0.367560